The Indian stock market will tread with caution on Thursday, as investors balance global uncertainties and the effects of dramatic U.S. tariffs. Gift Nifty early trends suggest a mildly positive opening, with the index trading close to 24,670 – about 20 points higher than the previous close of Nifty futures.
Equities experienced intense selling pressure on Wednesday as fears mounted over the aftermath of the 50% U.S. tariff announcement. Sensex plummeted 706 points (0.87%) to 80,080, while Nifty 50 fell 211 points (0.85%) to 24,501.
Sensex Outlook
The Sensex has been making a bearish pattern, with a lower top formation on intraday charts – generally an indication of weakness. Experts indicate that the near-term tone remains negative, although an oversold market may witness short-term recovery rallies.
Levels to look out for:
- Resistance: 80,600 – A crossing above this can lengthen the rebound to 81,000–81,300.
- Support: 79,900–79,700 – If these break, fresh downward momentum may be seen.
Nifty 50 Outlook
The Nifty 50 has crossed key supports, which is contributing to the bearish context. On the daily chart, it has formed a strong down candle, reflecting consistent selling pressure.
- Resistance levels: 24,670–24,700. A consistent break above this band could lead to a short-covering rally and even set the stage for a return to 25,000.
Analyst opinion: Most think the index may retest the August lows of 24,350 in the short term. The overall structure is weak, but steep pullbacks cannot be eliminated considering the oversold position.
Derivatives Snapshot – Nifty OI Data
- Highest Call OI: 24,800 (showing resistance).
- Highest Put OI: 24,500 (serving as immediate support).
Market positioning indicates 24,800 is a solid resistance level, and a close above it would be required to reverse the momentum in favor of bulls.
Bank Nifty Outlook
The banking index declined sharply by 630 points (1.16%) to settle at 53,820, registering a large bearish candle. Crucially, it now falls below its 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs and is moving towards its 200-day EMA (53,600–53,500).
- Support: 53,500 – A breakdown here may speed up weakness towards 52,900–52,400.
- Resistance: 54,500–54,600 – Only a strong move above this area can initiate recovery.
Recent market action indicates Bank Nifty breaching below its 3-week range of consolidation (54,900–56,100), which means there is more space for the downside if bulls are unable to capture levels above 55,000.
Takeaway for Traders
Sentiment is weak following Wednesday's tariff-induced selloff.
Sensex and Nifty are in a short-term down trend, but oversold situations would initiate brief pullbacks.
For Nifty, 24,300–24,250 is a critical support to monitor, while 24,700–24,800 is a critical resistance.
Bank Nifty appears weak below 53,500, with only a break above 55,000 that would turn the tide.
Disclaimer: This outlook reflects independent market analysts’ views and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor before making trading or investment decisions.
