Indian equities concluded another turbulent week in the negative zone, extending their losses for a second consecutive week. The Nifty 50 declined almost 1% to 25,492.30, down 230 points, while the Sensex slipped 0.86% to 83,216.28, down 722 points. However, the Bank Nifty bucked the weak trend in the broader markets, rising 0.17%, though this was led largely by consistent contributions from the public sector segment of banks.
Markets would remain range-bound, as global cues are dominating the sentiment, said Abhinav Tiwari, a Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio. "The focus would now shift to key US economic indicators, particularly the upcoming ISM PMI, which might impact the global risk appetite and FII inflows into India," he said. He added that domestic triggers, like RBI policy updates and Q2 corporate earnings, would continue to guide the near-term market direction.
Trade Setup for Monday
According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, the Nifty 50 has been trading below its 50-day EMA indicating sustained short-term weakness. The index has formed a double top near the 26,100 mark on the hourly chart and has thereafter been in a downtrend.
"The index has broken a critical moving average, which suggests a deeper bearish bias," said De. "Major resistance is placed at 25,600 levels; staying below this level may keep the market in the 'sell-on-rise' mode. On the downside, immediate support has been placed at 25,400 levels, and a break below could accelerate selling pressure.
Global Cues, Q2 Earnings, and IPO Buzz
In the international arena, investor sentiment remained fragile amidst fears over US economic data, China trade negotiations, and the likelihood of a US government shutdown. But buying at select counters at lower levels enabled domestic markets to recover from their intra-week lows.
According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services: "Though markets managed to find support at critical levels, it's too early to call this a trend reversal. Mixed corporate earnings, cautious global indicators, and continued FII outflows are keeping investors on edge."
He further said that only a few sectors, such as financials and PSU banks, showed resilience despite the uncertainty. Speculation of a possible hike in the FDI limit and sector consolidation also aided investor interest in these counters.
IPO Action & Commodity Watch
Meanwhile, the IPO of Lenskart is expected to hit the markets, with significant investor interest in an otherwise lukewarm market. According to analysts, the listing could act as an indicator for other consumer and tech IPOs lining up.
Commodity prices: Gold prices held their ground as investors weighed safe-haven demand against a stronger dollar, and the yellow metal is now set to be swayed by upcoming US inflation data, together with the Federal Reserve's next rate guidance.
Outlook Overall, the markets are expected to remain range-bound in the near term with a bias toward caution. Traders will keenly watch global macro developments, Q2 earnings, and IPO performances for directional cues. A decisive move above 25,600 or below 25,400 may set the tone for the next leg of the market trend.
